“The Global Macro Model compares the 7 countries under the China Soft Landing. The green colors highlight the most positive factors and red the most negative - i.e., the Drivers.



Brazil and China are a close first and second based on 3 greens and no reds. Brazil Drivers include "Natural Resources and Iron Ore + Exports to China. China Drivers include Catalyst of "200-600 People Moving into the Middle Class" and X Factor of "Work Ethic, Savings and Science" --- creating a causal chain leading to the 86% score.

To model the future, like Jamie Dimon wants to do, Catalysts are the starting point. Stephen Roach, head of Morgan Stanley Asia, believed the Soft Landing Catalyst was "200-600 People Moving Into The Middle Class +++", triggering a positive causal chain resulting in an p86% score.



and Jim Chanos, a leading short seller, "Empty Cities - - -", referring to the infamous Ghost Cities like Ordos --- entire new cities no one lived in China created with huge debt and no economic value --- triggering a negative causal chain and a -100 score.

The 1PAGER enables the team to iterate through "What-If" Scenario @ Speed of Thought and THINKSHEET updates the ANSWERs and Reasons Why INSTANTLY!

Below is the a view of the Dynamic Drivers as of November 15, 2022 --- with ZeroCOVID still in effect and the team trying to forecast the alternative scenarios based on whether or not Xi orders reopening.



Every element of both scenarios is dynamic: Scenarios, Weights, Risk Metrics and Judgments for Catalysts, Risks & X Factors. The team can What-If the most dynamic elements of the model in the meeting and see the impact on the Thought Processes and ANSWERSS INSTANTLY!.

Click on the Playlist below to see the videos for this case studay, featuring the 3 videos below the YouTube icon.